So it's that time of year again. That after a holiday season of slumber, the curtains are drawn and the keyboards armed and ready to fire.
It's ISML season. Perhaps the year that the 10k mark is broken. Anything's possible considering the incredibly strong increases in voting since ISML's inception.
But to business. There's 144 characters in line for only 50 spots in the ISML regular season. Hearts will be broken, rivalries will be renewed in the race for the tiara. There can be only one...
First things first, though. Get to the regular season before you can have a hope. And your best bet there is to get through in Phase 1. But that's easier said then done. Those voting, mark down Feb 27, Mar 1, Mar 3 and Mar 6, all 1500 GMT, as your dates to cast your vote. They all count. Matches do get that close.
16 groups of nine. And only ONE character will get through each of those while the other 128 will have to endure more cuthroat voting to make it to the regular season. Let's have a look at those groups and pick a likely winner for each, shall we?
GROUP 1: Not much to say here, really? Could defending tiara holder Mio have asked for a better draw?! Perhaps the more interesting thing to determine is who out of this group could qualify at a later stage, if at all.
Likely qualifier: Mio to convincingly begin her tiara defense.
GROUP 2: Another clear-cut looking group. Last year's runner up, riding an increasing wave of momentum throughout the year - Mikoto looks set to electrify ISML once more with a swift qualifying. And if last year's results are anything to go by, the rest of the lot may be having a fool's hope to make it to the regular season.
Likely qualifier: Mikoto
GROUP 3: We ask the same question every year - will this finally be Shana's year? Eternally the bridesmaid but never the bride. Top 4 finisher every year since ISML started, but someone always rises up at the last moment, be it for passionate fandom or for anti-Shana voting, to snuff out her blazing glory yet again. Who could forget Hinagiku's thrilling 11 vote victory in the 2009 Grand Final, or Mikoto beating Shana [b]twice[/b] when it really mattered? But that's a long way away yet - Shana looks set for an easy qualifying. But maybe someone from this pack could emerge at a later date. Saten and Ryogi both have considerable fan bases to draw from. But with the new crop, their chances may be very slim.
Likely qualifier: Shana
GROUP 4: There's bound to be some hurt over this group. Azusa is pretty formidable and might as well have one foot through the qualifying door already. But perhaps someone from the rest will live to fight more than just another day. MGLN has persisting popularity and the recent movie, so don't be surprised if Nanoha makes it by the time the prelims are over.
Likely qualifier: Azusa
GROUP 5: Now maybe things aren't as clear-cut as they seem in this group. You can bet your calamari rings on that! Squid Girl's numbers in the nominations were notable. Merchandise of Squid Girl plentiful and attracts a lot of fan dollars. Perennial perfomer Hinagiku will have to go against the 'two years' trend, where ISML characters tend to have their numbers decline considerably within two years of their first participation. Is time now against the former tiara winner, or will she fend off the assault from the sea with her usual spirit and determination?
Likely qualifier: Hinagiku
Ones to watch: Squid Girl
GROUP 6: Not much to say, really. You'd think Taiga will have this group on a walk. Perhaps Ui could scrape into the regular season - she did pull off a few upsets late last season.
Likely qualifier: Taiga
GROUP 7: Disappearance had the effect KyoAni was hoping for. More people remembered it for Yuki than Haruhi. Off of that strength alone, you'd expect Yuki to cruise to the regular season. I don't see much hope for the rest of this group - I'd love to see Sawako make it, but past polls show she just doesn't seem to do well in these parts. Oh well.
Likely qualifier: Yuki
GROUP 8: NOW we have something worth pondering! This group has some heavy hitters - you'd expect 3 of them to be clashing in the regular season. Haruhi's popularity - despite Yuki's continual rise - will surely be enough to get her to the season. But will she get through first shot? Last year, people thought I was delusional to dare think that Angel Beats characters, particularly Kanade and Yuri, would be major contenders and secure a solid fanbase. Sales of the series and merchandise have shown that to be the case and then some. What a difference a year makes. Yuri is in with a very good chance to create some tension early and send a message to the other fanbases within ISML. Or will Haruhi show her doubters that she isn't going to disappear just yet? And don't write off Black Rock Shooter - you'd expect her to make it to the regular season at some point.
Likely qualifier: Yuri. I'm going for an upset here.
Ones to watch: Haruhi, Black Rock Shooter
GROUP 9: Now this looks like a 'Group of Death' for sure...A few months ago, Yui would have won this group on a walk, albeit a very ditzy one. But now the daydreamer is in for a potential nightmare. There's one major reason people watch Gosick - Victorique. She has certainly garnered a lot of attention in very little time indeed. Working was also a strong seller last year, so expect Poplar to be a competitor come the regular season too. Kotomi and Mikuru are both perennial contenders too. But the real question is...who's getting out of this mess first?
Likely qualifier: Yui. The K-ON juggernaut isn't ready to relent yet.
Ones to watch: Victorique, Poplar, Mikuru, Kotomi
GROUP 10: I don't see much to say, really. Nagi fans will probably consider themselves lucky they didn't draw any of the big newcomers or the perennial favourites. Sit back and relax.
Likely qualifier: Nagi
GROUP 11: Uh, oh, looks like there's another 'Group of Death' in the mix! Tomoyo has always been performing well in ISML. C.C. has shown somewhat resilient suppsort. But Eucliwood's almost absurd popularity is still rising - this does not bode well for her competitors. Moe is in the eye of the beholder - clearly Eucliwood has quite a pile of them. While only one will get through this showdown, you'd expect all three to front up to the regular season.
Likely qualifier: Tomoyo, barely.
Ones to watch: Eucliwood, C.C.
GROUP 12: Some fair firepower here, but you'd expect Saber and Horo to be the main contenders for a fast qualifying. Saber seemed to be the beneficiary of the FSN movie - one would suspect that to remain true enough to get her past the jaws of the feisty feminine wolf-goddess. Yui could also see regular season action if flow-on effects from Kanade and Yuri are strong enough.
Likely qualifier: Saber
Ones to watch: Horo, Yui
GROUP 13: Make no mistake. This. Is. THE. THE! GROUP OF DEATH!!! You don't want a favourite of yours to be in this one. Some fanbases will be sweating on Phase 2 thanks to this colossal clash. As if Kyou and Fate weren't enough to create tension, the late year storm generated by Kirino is bound to wreak havoc on ISML this year and then some. Nomination results, the experts - they agree that Kirino is a MAJOR contender this year. Beware Triple K - and there's your first part of it. Throw in the Madoka girls and now you've got one monumental mess on your hands! It's all out war in this group - expect some people to get VERY upset as to how this group turns out. But expect a good deal of this group to make it to the regular season.
Likely winner: Kirino. Believe the hype. She will be a major threat full stop.
Ones to watch: Kyou, Fate, Madoka
GROUP 14: Take one look at Group 13. Then take a look at Group 14...Seriously, what the?! Considering the nuclear state of Group 13, Group 14 looks like a mere atom in the wide, wide universe. Lucky Star fans will be rapt their most consistent performer has a very easy path.
Likely winner: Kagami
GROUP 15: Again, what a difference a year makes. Scratch that, a few months even. Before October, Hitagi would have had this group in the bag. But now she's got the highest poller in nominations slowly walking past in her black dress, gentle voice and apt mind - Hitagi may be set to be shafted. Mafuyu may scrape in for another regular season showing. The second part of Triple K - Kuroneko, is ready to shake things up.
Likely winner: Kuroneko.
Ones to watch: Hitagi, Mafuyu
GROUP 16: The final group is definitely not the least interesting. Another 'Group of Death' is in the works here. Nadeko rode a wave of voting last year to make it to the final 16. Rin fell over at the last hurlde to make it to the 16. But now, damnation may be coming their way, hovering in with white wings and a very disarming face. Kanade, the final third of Triple K, is perhaps the biggest threat of them all. The clear overall favourite of Angel Beats fans, she is set for some serious action, some already flagging her as a Top 10 for the regular season. Kanade looks set to be the 'Angel of Death' in this group.
Likely winner: Kanade
Ones to watch: Nadeko, Rin
The full grouping lists for Phase 1 can be seen at http://www.internationalsaimoe.com/contestants/preliminary.php
Remember that voting starts on Feb 27 1500 GMT and that you have 24 hours to cast your vote. There are 3 phases for the prelims, so don't despair if your favourites don't all make it it straight away. Try and have fun with ISML this year. ;)
PS. Taking bets for when Shana is knocked out of ISML SE. :P j/k
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